Iindaba - Ingaba i-Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate iyakucuthwa njani, kwiinyanga ezisithoba emva koko, ichaphazele imarike yentsimbi yehlabathi?

NgoSeptemba 18, i-Federal Reserve ibhengeze inzala yayo yokuqala yokunciphisa inzala ukususela ngo-2025. IKomiti ye-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) inqume ukunciphisa inzala ngamanqaku angama-25, ukunciphisa uluhlu olujoliswe kuyo kwireyithi yemali ye-federal ukuya phakathi kwe-4% kunye ne-4.25%. Esi sigqibo sasihambelana nokulindela kweemarike. Oku kwaphawula okokuqala ukuba i-Fed iye yanciphisa inzala kwiinyanga ezilithoba ukususela ngoDisemba wonyaka ophelileyo. Phakathi kukaSeptemba noDisemba walo nyaka uphelileyo, i-Fed yehlise inzala ngenani elipheleleyo le-100 lamanqaku asisiseko kwiintlanganiso ezintathu, emva koko yabamba amaxabiso azinzileyo kwiintlanganiso ezintlanu ezilandelelanayo.

USihlalo we-Federal Reserve u-Powell uthe kwinkomfa yeendaba ukuba oku kuncitshiswa kwezinga kwakusisigqibo sokulawula umngcipheko kwaye uhlengahlengiso olukhawulezayo lwemilinganiselo yenzala yayingeyomfuneko. Oku kuphakamisa ukuba i-Fed ayiyi kungena kumjikelo ozinzileyo wokucuthwa kwamaxabiso, ukupholisa uvakalelo lwemarike.

Abahlalutyi babonisa ukuba i-Fed's 25 basis point rate cut inokuthathwa njengento "yokuthintela", oku kuthetha ukuba ikhupha imali eninzi yokuvuselela uqoqosho, ukuxhasa imarike yemisebenzi, kunye nokuthintela umngcipheko wokufika okunzima kuqoqosho lwase-US.

Imarike ilindele ukuba i-Federal Reserve iqhubeke nokusika inzala kulo nyaka.

Xa kuthelekiswa nomlinganiselo wokusika ngokwawo, izibonakaliso zomgaqo-nkqubo ezilandelayo ezihanjiswe yintlanganiso ye-Federal Reserve kaSeptemba zibaluleke kakhulu, kwaye imarike ihlawula ingqwalasela engakumbi kwisantya sokunciphisa izinga le-Fed elizayo.

Abahlalutyi babonisa ukuba impembelelo yeerhafu kwi-inflation yase-US iya kuphakama kwikota yesine. Ngaphaya koko, imarike yezemisebenzi yase-US ihleli ibuthathaka, nezinga lentswela-ngqesho kulindeleke ukuba liqhube linyukela kwi-4.5%. Ukuba idatha yomvuzo we-Okthobha engeyiyo eyefama iyaqhubeka ukuhla ngaphantsi kwe-100,000, ukucuthwa komyinge owongezelelweyo ngoDisemba kunokwenzeka kakhulu. Ngoko ke, i-Fed ilindeleke ukuba inciphise inzala ngamanqaku e-25 ngo-Oktobha nangoDisemba, izisa inani elipheleleyo kwi-75 yesiseko, kathathu ngonyaka.

Namhlanje, imarike yentsimbi yexesha elizayo yaseTshayina ibone iinzuzo ezingaphezulu kunelahleko, ngamaxabiso aphakathi emarikeni enyuka kuyo yonke ibhodi. Oku kubandakanyarebar, H-imiqadi, intsimbiiikhoyili, imicu yentsimbi, imibhobho yentsimbi kunye nepleyiti yentsimbi.

Ngokusekwe kule mibono ingentla, iRoyal Steel Group icebisa abathengi:

1. Ngokukhawuleza vala amaxabiso omyalelo wexesha elifutshane: Thatha ithuba lefestile xa izinga lotshintshiselwano langoku lingakhange libonise ngokupheleleyo ukuthotywa kwexabiso elilindelekileyo kwaye usayine izivumelwano zexabiso elimiselweyo nabanikezeli. Ukutshixelwa kwamaxabiso angoku kuthintela ukunyuka kweendleko zokuthenga ngenxa yokuguquguquka kwexabiso lotshintshiselwano kamva.

2. Lawula isantya sokucuthwa kwenzala elandelayo:I-Fed's dot plot icebisa enye i-50 ye-base point rate yokusika ngaphambi kokuphela kuka-2025. Ukuba idatha yengqesho yase-US iqhubeka nokuhla, oku kunokubangela ukucutha izinga elingalindelekanga, ukunyusa uxinzelelo kwi-RMB yokubonga. Abathengi bayacetyiswa ukuba babeke iliso ngokusondeleyo isixhobo se-CME Fed Watch kwaye bahlengahlengise izicwangciso zokuthenga ngamandla.