Iindaba - Ukuncitshiswa kwenzala ye-Federal Reserve ye-25 basis points kuza kuyichaphazela njani imarike yentsimbi yehlabathi?

Ngomhla we-18 kuSeptemba, iFederal Reserve yabhengeza ukuncitshiswa kwayo kokuqala kwenzala ukusukela ngo-2025. IKomiti yeMarike eVulekileyo yeFederal (FOMC) yagqiba ekubeni inciphise amazinga enzala ngamanqaku angama-25 esiseko, yehlisa uluhlu olujoliswe kulo lwezinga lemali yefederal ukuya phakathi kwe-4% kunye ne-4.25%. Esi sigqibo sasihambelana nolindelo lwemarike. Oku kwaphawula ixesha lokuqala iFed inciphise amazinga enzala kwiinyanga ezilithoba ukusukela ngoDisemba wonyaka ophelileyo. Phakathi kukaSeptemba noDisemba wonyaka ophelileyo, iFed inciphise amazinga enzala ngamanqaku angama-100 esiseko kwiintlanganiso ezintathu, yaza yagcina amazinga ezinzile kwiintlanganiso ezintlanu ezilandelelanayo.

USihlalo weFederal Reserve uPowell uthe kwingqungquthela yabezindaba ukuba olu nciphiso lwamaxabiso sisigqibo solawulo lomngcipheko kwaye ukulungiswa ngokukhawuleza kwamazinga enzala bekungadingeki. Oku kuthetha ukuba iFed ayizukungena kumjikelo oqhubekayo wokunciphisa amaxabiso, nto leyo ethoba iimvakalelo zemarike.

Abahlalutyi bathi ukunciphisa i-25 basis point rate ye-Fed kunokuthathwa njengokuncitshiswa "kokuthintela", oko kuthetha ukuba kukhupha imali eninzi yokukhuthaza imisebenzi yezoqoqosho, ukuxhasa imakethi yemisebenzi, kunye nokuthintela umngcipheko wokuba uqoqosho lwaseMelika lufikelele esiphelweni esinzima.

Imarike ilindele ukuba iFederal Reserve iqhubeke nokunciphisa amazinga enzala kulo nyaka.

Xa kuthelekiswa nokuncitshiswa kwexabiso ngokwalo, imiqondiso yomgaqo-nkqubo elandelayo evezwe yintlanganiso yeFederal Reserve kaSeptemba ibaluleke ngakumbi, kwaye imakethi inika ingqalelo ngakumbi kwisantya sokuncitshiswa kwexabiso leFed kwixesha elizayo.

Abahlalutyi bathi impembelelo yerhafu kwixabiso lentengo e-US iya kufikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu kwikota yesine. Ngaphezu koko, imakethi yezabasebenzi e-US isabuthathaka, kwaye izinga lokungaqeshwa kulindeleke ukuba liqhubeke linyuka liye kwi-4.5%. Ukuba idatha yomvuzo ka-Okthobha engeyiyo yefama iyaqhubeka nokuhla ngaphantsi kwe-100,000, ukuncitshiswa kwexabiso ngoDisemba kunokwenzeka kakhulu. Ke ngoko, i-Fed kulindeleke ukuba inciphise amazinga enzala ngamanqaku angama-25 ngo-Okthobha nangoDisemba, nto leyo ezisa inani elipheleleyo kuma-75 basis points, kathathu ngonyaka.

Namhlanje, imakethi yekamva yentsimbi yaseTshayina ibone iinzuzo ezingaphezulu kunelahleko, kunye namaxabiso aphakathi emarike anyuka kuyo yonke ibhodi. Oku kuqukai-rebar, Imiqadi ye-H, intsimbiiikhoyili, imicu yentsimbi, imibhobho yentsimbi kunye nepleyiti yentsimbi.

Ngokusekelwe kwimbono ezingasentla, iRoyal Steel Group icebisa abathengi:

1. Vala amaxabiso e-odolo yexesha elifutshane ngoko nangoko: Sebenzisa ithuba xa izinga lokutshintshiselana kwemali langoku lingakhange libonise ngokupheleleyo ukuncitshiswa kwamaxabiso okulindelekileyo kwaye usayine izivumelwano zamaxabiso asisigxina nabathengisi. Ukuvala amaxabiso angoku kuthintela ukunyuka kweendleko zokuthenga ngenxa yokuguquguquka kwamaxabiso okutshintshiselana kwemali kamva.

2. Jonga isantya sokuncitshiswa kwenzala okulandelayo:I-dot plot ye-Fed icebisa ukuba kuncitshiswe kwakhona i-50 basis point rate ngaphambi kokuphela kuka-2025. Ukuba idatha yengqesho yase-US iyaqhubeka nokuwohloka, oku kunokubangela ukuncitshiswa kwexabiso okungalindelekanga, okwandisa uxinzelelo kwi-RMB ukuba ifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu. Abathengi bayacetyiswa ukuba bajonge ngokusondeleyo isixhobo se-CME Fed Watch kwaye balungise izicwangciso zokuthenga ngendlela eguquguqukayo.