Iindaba - Iindlela Zamva nje kunye noHlaziyo lweZakhiwo kuRhwebo lwaseTshayina lokuThumela ngaphandle iNsimbi ngo-2026

Ngowama-2026, icandelo lokuthumela ngaphandle intsimbi eTshayina liye laphucuka kakhulu. Ngenxa yempembelelo ephindwe kabini yemithetho engqongqo yokubonelela ngempahla yasekhaya kunye nokuncitshiswa kwemida yenzuzo kwiifektri zentsimbi, umthamo opheleleyo wokuthumela ngaphandle intsimbi eTshayina kwikota yokuqala (Q1) ka-2026 wehle nge-I-8% ngonyaka, nto leyo ephelisa umkhwa wokwanda okuqhubekayo komthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle oqhubeke iminyaka eliqela.iimveliso zentsimbi ezikhethekileyo ezongezwe ngexabiso eliphezulu—elungiselelwe amacandelo athile ezicelo—ifikelele ekukhuleni okujoliswe kuko kwiimarike ezikwindawo ethile. Olu tshintsho lubonisa utshintsho lweshishini ukusuka kwimodeli yesiqhelo"ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngexabiso eliphantsi, ngobuninzi"ukuya kwi"ijolise kwixabiso, iqhutywa bubuchwepheshe"indlela yorhwebo oluwela imida.

isakhiwo sentsimbi yentsimbi yasebukhosini yeqela lesinyithi

Uhlalutyo Lokusebenza Kwamanye Amazwe Iimveliso Zentsimbi Engundoqo

1. Intsimbi egqityiweyo (iiBillets)

Ukubeka iSikhundla ngoBuchule:Indlela yokuphepha imiqobo yorhwebo kwaye isebenze njengekhonkco lokukhusela kwiindlela zemveliso eziwela imida.

Iindawo eziphambili zokuya kuzo:KuMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia (eVietnam, e-Indonesia), kuMbindi Mpuma, nakuMntla Afrika.

Ngenxa yemirhumo enzima yokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma ejolise kwiimveliso zentsimbi ezigqityiweyo, iifektri zentsimbi zasekhaya ziye zatshintsha indlela yokubeka phambili ukuthunyelwa kwentsimbi engagqitywanga ukuze kuncitshiswe iingozi zorhwebo; kwikota yoku-1 ka-2026, umthamo weebhelethi zentsimbi ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe unyuke nge-1.260% unyaka nonyaka. Abavelisi ngaphakathii-ASEANummandla ungenisa ezi mveliso zentsimbi ezigqityiweyo ezivela eTshayina ukuze ziqhubeke nokucutshungulwa zibe ziimpahla ezigqityiweyo. Le modeli yentsebenziswano phakathi kwemida ayipheleli nje ekugqitheni imiqobo yorhwebo—ngaloo ndlela igcina ukufikelela kwimarike kwimimandla ethintelweyo—kodwa ikwaphucula ukwabiwa kwezabelo zokukhupha ikhabhoni yasekhaya kwaye inegalelo ekuzinzisweni kweenkqubo zokubonelela ngentsimbi zamazwe ngamazwe.

2. Intsimbi yeSilicon

Ukubeka iSikhundla ngoBuchule:Umthengisi wezinto eziphambili zophuhliso lweziseko zophuhliso zehlabathi ezinxulumene notshintsho lwamandla.

Iindawo eziphambili zokuya kuzo:IManyano yaseYurophu (i-EU) kunye neBrazil (eMzantsi Melika).

Ngaphakathi kwipotifoliyo yokuthumela ngaphandle intsimbi yaseTshayina ngo-2026, isinyithi se-silicon savela njengecandelo elibonisa ukukhula kwexabiso okubonakalayo.Idatha yerhafu ityhila ukuba ngoMatshi 2026, umthamo wokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe wesinyithi sesilicon esingajoliswanga ufikelele kwiitoni ezingama-42,800, nto leyo ephawula iinyanga ezintathu ezilandelelanayo zokukhula kwenyanga nenyanga.Ukuphuculwa kwegridi yamandla e-EU, ukwandiswa kweeprojekthi zamandla avuselelekayo, kunye nokwakhiwa kweziseko zokutshaja zezithuthi zombane (EV) kuyaqhubeka nokuvelisa imfuno eqinileyo yemarike yeemveliso zesinyithi zesilicon ezikumgangatho ophezulu zaseTshayina. Nangona kuza kuphunyezwa i-"Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism" (CBAM) ye-EU, iimveliso zesinyithi zesilicon ezifumene isiqinisekiso se-low-carbon zigcina ukhuphiswano oluqinileyo lwemarike, zibiza inzuzo ephezulu nge-18% kuneemveliso zesinyithi zemveli.

3. Izakhiwo zeNsimbi kunye neePiping zobuNjineli obuKhethekileyo

Ukubeka iSikhundla ngoBuchule:Ukusebenzisa iiprojekthi ezinkulu zeziseko zophuhliso ze-"Belt and Road 2.0" ukuze kufezekiswe ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe okudibeneyo kwe-"Product + Service".

Iindawo eziphambili zokuya kuzo:UMbindi Mpuma (Saudi Arabia, UAE), eMpuma Afrika (Ethiopia, Nigeria), kunye noMzantsi-mpuma Asia (Indonesia).

Ekuqaleni kowama-2026, utshintsho kwezopolitiko kuMbindi Mpuma lwabangela ukunqongophala kwesinyithi esikumgangatho wobunjineli kummandla. Iiprojekthi zeFlagship—eziboniswe yiprojekthi yesixeko esikrelekrele saseSaudi Arabia ethi "NEOM"—ziqhubekile nokukhuthaza imfuno enamandla yezakhiwo zemibhobho emikhulu kunye nesinyithi esimiselweyo.Ngowama-2026, isalathisi sozinzo lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwiimveliso zepayipi ezikhethekileyo zaseTshayina sifikelele kwi-96%.Amashishini asekhaya atshintshe ngempumelelo ukusuka ekuthumeleni iimveliso kwamanye amazwe ukuya ekuboneleleni ngezisombululo ezidibeneyo eziquka "iimveliso, iinkonzo zobunjineli, kunye nenkxaso yobugcisa," ngaloo ndlela ephucula ngempumelelo icandelo elongezelelekileyo lezinto ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngokuthatha inxaxheba kwiiprojekthi ze-"Belt and Road 2.0".

4. Iingqumba zePhepha leNsimbi kunye neengqumba zePipe zeNsimbi

Ukubeka iSikhundla ngoBuchule:Abaxhamli ngqo kutyalo-mali lwehlabathi kwimo yokumelana nemozulu kunye neziseko zophuhliso zonxweme.

Iindawo eziphambili zokuya kuzo:KuMzantsi-mpuma weAsia (kwiPhilippines, eMalaysia) nakuMbindi Melika.

Utyalo-mali lwehlabathi kukhuseleko lonxweme kunye neziseko zothintelo/ukunciphisa iintlekele lubonelele ngamandla ekukhuleni kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwenqwaba yesinyithi ngo-2026. Okuphawulekayo kukuba, iiprojekthi zokhuselo lonxweme ePhilippines kunye namanyathelo okwandisa amazibuko ePanama zibangele ngaphezulu kwe-40% yokukhula kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe okubonwe kwezi ndawo. Nangona imiqobo yorhwebo eMntla Melika inciphise ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwesinyithi sokwakha esiqhelekileyo, utyalo-mali olukhulayo lwezoqoqosho "zeHlabathi eMzantsi" kwiziseko zobunjineli bolwandle ezimelana nokunyikima komhlaba, ulawulo lwezikhukula, kunye nobunjineli bolwandle lubonelele ngesiseko esiqinileyo semfuno yemarike yentsimbi yokwakha esebenza kakhulu.

5. Ii-Angles zeNsimbi kunye neeProfayili zeZakhiwo ezikhethekileyo

Ukubeka iSikhundla ngoBuchule:Ukukhonza umkhwa wokuhlaziya imveliso kwihlabathi liphela kunye nothungelwano lokubonelela ngezixhobo ezinzima.

Iindawo eziphambili zokuya kuzo:IIndiya neMexico.

Nangona i-India ikwazile ukuzimela kakhulu kwiimveliso zentsimbi ezigqityiweyo, amacandelo ayo okuvelisa iimoto kunye noomatshini abakhulu ahlala exhomekeke kakhulu kwiiprofayili zesakhiwo ezinamandla aphezulu ezingeniswe zivela e-China, kunye nezinga lokuxhomekeka ekungenisweni kwempahla lidlula i-35%. Kwangaxeshanye, ukwanda "okusondeleyo" kwicandelo lokuvelisa laseMexico kuye kwabangela imfuno enamandla yeeprofayili zesakhiwo sase-China—ngokuyintloko yokwakha iifektri ezintsha kunye nezibonelelo—ukuqhubela phambili iMexico ukuba ivele ngo-2026 njengenye yeemarike ezikhula ngokukhawuleza zokuthumela ngaphandle iimveliso zentsimbi ezikhethekileyo ezivela eTshayina.

Imbonakalo yoThumelo ngaphandle kwiShishini liphela ka-2026

Ngowama-2026, kulindeleke ukuba ukuthunyelwa kwentsimbi eTshayina kubonise iprofayili yesakhiwo ephawulwa "ngumthamo ophantsi, ixabiso eliphezulu." Nangona ukuthunyelwa kwempahla ngonyaka kulindeleke ukuba kubuye umva kwirekhodi ephezulu eyasekwa ngo-2024 nango-2025, ixabiso lilonke lokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe lilungele ukufikelela ekukhuleni konyaka nge-3% ukuya kwi-5%, okuqhutywa kukwenziwa ngcono nokuphuculwa komxube wemveliso.

Umgaqo-nkqubo welayisenisi onyanzelekileyo wokuthunyelwa kwesinyithi ngaphandle, ocwangciselwe ukuphunyezwa ngo-2026, uza kuphakamisa kakhulu imiqobo yokungena kushishino. Ngenxa yoko, izixhobo zorhwebo zaphesheya ezisemgangathweni ophezulu ziya kuhlanganiswa ngakumbi ngaphakathi kwamashishini amakhulu karhulumente afanelekileyo kunye neenkampani eziphambili zesinyithi esiluhlaza kumacandelo abucala. Ukujonga phambili, icandelo lokuthumela isinyithi laseTshayina likulungele ukuqala utshintsho olucwangcisiweyo—ukutshintsha ukusuka kwimodeli yokhuphiswano esekelwe kwiindleko eziphantsi kunye nokuhambelana kwemveliso ukuya kwindlela yophuhliso egxile kubuchwepheshe obuphezulu, imveliso ekhabhoni ephantsi, kunye nezixhobo ezenziwe ngokwezifiso—ngaloo ndlela iqhubela phambili ukuphuculwa kwesakhiwo sendawo yorhwebo lwangaphandle lwesinyithi.